Farmers Insurance Open expert picks and predictions with our PGA pro's best bets at Torrey Pines | Sporting News (2024)

In this betting preview:

  • Top trends from Farmers Insurance Open past winners
  • Expert picks and predictions
  • Updated odds to win
  • Torrey Pines South vs. North course breakdown

We will stay in beautiful southern California for another week and play the Farmers Insurance Open on the famed North and South courses at Torrey Pines. Quite possibly the best public golf facility in the country, this 36-hole facility sits on the cliffs overlooking the Pacific Ocean. Players will compete once on the North and once on the South over the first two rounds. Those who make the 36-hole cut will compete on the South Course for the entire weekend.

California has been under siege from the weather and waves this winter. Torrey sits high above the water, but nonetheless will receive some rain early in the week. By the time we start Wednesday, over an inch will soak the course. The rest of the week looks pretty perfect, but adding some softness to these fairways will only make a long course… well, longer.

Temperatures will be seasonal for San Diego. The mornings will start in the mid-50's and then rise into the high-60s and low-70s by Sunday. Wind looks very calm for the coast. On most days, the breeze will fall in the single-digits. The biggest challenge will be when it moves from southwest in Round 1to northeast by Round 4.

What a week at the AMEX! JT Poston contends and comes up short, Sungjae Im gives us three great days, and Eric Cole bogeys(!) the last hole to miss the top 20 by one stroke. Alas, we move on to Torrey. For full coverage of the Farmers, subscribe to theRead The Line newsletter (it’s free!) and follow on Twitter!

The Farmers Insurance Open has always captured a solid field. The two courses, dates on the calendar, Tiger's annual start to the season all carried the competition. The past two years have been different. Farmers doesn't carry a "signature" title, and Tiger no longer makes the Torrey trip. Some quick nuggets on this week's field:

  • Twelve of the top 30 in the OWGR are in San Diego this weekend.
  • There's a $9 millionpurse and $1.62 millionfor first place.
  • Max Homa is your defending champ — he sits at +1000, one of the favorites on the betting boards.

Here's a closer look into some of our best bets including top-20 finishers, head-to-head props and our pick to win.

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the Farmers Insurance Open winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

Farmers Insurance Open expert picks and predictions

Although all winners at the Farmers are great ball-strikers, they aren't always high on the odds board. In fact, the average winner's odds over the past 10 years is +5600 (56-1).

(Side note: Torrey was one of my favorite outright wins, courtesy of a +9000 (90-1) win with Luke List in 2022!)

The field of 156 competitors will be cut to the top 65 (and ties) for the weekend. Nestled between two Pro-Ams on the PGA TOUR schedule, I'm excited to see some challenging golf. For three rounds, they will play a beast of a course. The South stretches 7,700+ yards and will be playing long again this year. It's probably not too hard for us to figure out what it will take to contend as a skill set.

The last 10 winners of the Farmers Insurance Open gained an average of 5.7 strokes against the field from tee to green (SG:T2G). Torrey Pines is a ball-striker's paradise. Look at your last two winners — Luke List and Max Homa — two of the best long iron and drivers of the golf ball on TOUR. This week, our research begins and ends with the guys who can flat out flush it!

  • The first challenge comes off the tee at Torrey. Almost every hole either bends or has a fairway bunker. In fact, 26 holes (of 28) present at least one of those attention-grabbers and 21 of them have both. Seven of the last 10 winners gained an average of 1.2 strokes off the tee when they won.
  • With 19 of 36 holes stretching over 450 yards in length, power is a huge attribute on this beast.
  • Don't discount accuracy off the tee as well. Players tend to hit about 53 percentof the fairways (South Course) which is well below the PGA TOUR average of 63 percent.
  • Seven of the eight par-3s measure over 200 yards. On the South Course, 47 percentof the approach shots are over 175 yards. That's seven percent more than the TOUR average. Bring your long iron game to Torrey. Past champions include Jason Day, Jon Rahm, Justin Rose and Tiger Woods; seven times — eight if you count the broken-leg US Open!
  • Gaining on approach gives you the best chance to contend. The last five winners gained an average of five strokes against the field. Not many flip wedges into these greens and the par-5s force you to hit approach shots as well with two of them measuring over 615 yards.
  • With so many long approach shots, players only hit 62 percentof their GIRs and that falls five percentbelow the TOUR average.
  • Missing greens? That means around-the-green play is significant. Eight of the last 10 winners gained about a stroke with their short game en route to victory.
  • Approach is important, sure,but all10 of the past 10winners gained on the greens an average of 3.6 strokes! Putting on Poa annua for three days can be maddening. Each of our outright predictions has demonstratedsuccess on this surface.

Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Homa, and Collin Morikawa are the favorites, but 2024 has given us three surprise winners so far. Chris Kirk, Grayson Murray, and amateur Nick Dunlap have all held pre-tournament odds over +20000 (200-1)! The prototype player for Torrey is Xander or Collin, and the difficulty of Torrey’s test will bring the TOUR back to reality.

Farmers Insurance Open best bet to win: Ludvig Åberg (+2200 on BetMGM)

The best driver on the PGA TOUR not named Rory McIlroy is Ludvig Åberg. The Swedish sensation is really long and accurate. Outside of major championship courses, Torrey Pines and Bay Hill really put a premium on driving. Åberg is a perfect fit for the South Course. I know the ball-striking is impressive, but he can also score, ranked fourth in the field BoB%. Aberg's long-iron play is what should push him over the edge, as he's ranked in the top five for all approaches over 175 yards.

Farmers Insurance Open best bet to finish top 20: Sahith Theegala (+160)

Sahith Theegala has a serious west-coast reputation. The former college player of the year who competed at Pepperdine won the Fortinet in Napa and finished top 25 in his first two starts at Torrey Pines. Last year it was a fourth place result. Fresh off his runner-up in Hawaii, watch him take the momentum right into his home state.

Farmers Insurance Open best prop bet of the week: Theegala over Zalatoris (-138 on Bet365)

Injuries can be a funny thing. Will Zalatoris is making a comeback from back surgery. His starts at the Hero, Sony, and AMEX were well below his standards of ball striking. Now he heads to one of the most difficult (and longest) courses on TOUR. Sahith Theegala is second in average strokes gained at Torrey Pines and an outright pick.

Farmers Insurance Open odds to win

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Golfer Odds to Win
Xander Schauffle +900
Collin Morikawa +1000
Max Homa +1100
Patrick Cantlay +1100
Ludvig Aberg +2000
Sungjae Im +2000
Jason Day +2500
Tony Finau +2800
Keegan Bradley +3000
Min Woo Lee +3000
Sahith Theegala +3300
Eric Cole +3500
Harris English +4000
Sepp Straka +4000
Hideki Matsuyama +4500
Justin Rose +4500
Nicolai Hojgaard +4500
Will Zalatoris +5000
Adrian Meronk +6000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6600
Daniel Berger +6600
Keith Mitchell +6600
Luke List +6600
Shane Lowry +6600
Emilliano Grillo +6600
Patrick Rodgers +6600
Ryan Fox +6600
Stephan Jaeger +6600
Adam Svensson +8000
Akshay Bhatia +8000
Beau Hossler +8000
Billy Horschel +8000
Nick Dunlap +8000
Ryo Hisatsune +8000
Taylor Montgomery +8000
Alex Smalley +9000
Mackenzie Hughes +9000
Michael Kim +9000
Taylor Moore +9000
Tom Hoge +9000
Aaron Rai +10000
Adam Schenk +10000
Austin Eckroat +10000
Davis Thompson +10000
J.J. Spaun +10000
Sam Ryder +10000
Taylor Pendrith +10000
Thomas Detry +10000
Alexander Bjork +12500
Gary Woodland +12500
Greyson Sigg +12500
Justin Suh +12500
K.H. Lee +12500
Kevin Yu +12500
Ben Kohles +15000
Mark Hubbard +15000
Matt Wallace +15000
Matthieu Pavon +15000
Nicholas Lindheim +15000
Nick Hardy +15000
S.H. Kim +15000
Sam Stevens +15000
Scott Stallings +15000
Victor Perez +15000
Vincent Norrman +15000
Chesson Hadley +17500
Stewart Cink +17500
Carl Yuan +20000
Chan Kim +20000
Doug Ghim +20000
Dylan Wu +20000
Lanto Griffin +20000
Lee Hodges +20000
Matti Schmid +20000
Maverik McNeely +20000
Robert Macintyre +20000
Seamus Power +20000
Taiga Semikawa +20000
Vince Whaley +20000
Will Gordon +20000
Matt NeSmith +22500
Tyler Duncan +22500
Cameron Champ +25000
Carson Young +25000
Chad Ramey +25000
Chandler Phillips +25000
Charley Hoffman +25000
Francesco Molinari +25000
Jhonattan Vegas +25000
Joel Dahmen +25000
Joseph Bramlett +25000
Nate Lashley +25000
Robby Shelton +25000
Troy Merritt +25000
Zac Blair +25000
Adrian Dumont de Chassert +30000
Alejandro Tosti +30000
Ben Martin +30000
Ben Silverman +30000
Callum Tarren +30000
Chris Gotterup +30000
Davis Riley +30000
Harry Hall +30000
Jacob Bridgeman +30000
Jake Knapp +30000
Jimmy Stanger +30000
Justin Lower +30000
Kevin Streelman +30000
Martin Laird +30000
Ryan Moore +30000
Chez Reavie +35000
Garrick Higgo +35000
Harrison Endycott +35000
Joe Highsmith +35000
Nico Echavarria +35000
Aaron Baddeley +40000
Brandt Snedeker +40000
David Lipsky +40000
Hayden Springer +40000
Mac Meissner +40000
Max Greyserman +40000
Norman Xiong +40000
Peter Malnati +40000
Sami Valimaki +40000
Hayden Buckley +50000
Josh Teater +50000
Parker Coody +50000
Patrick Fishburn +50000
Paul Barjon +50000
Pierceson Coody +50000
Rico Hoey +50000
Roger Sloan +50000
Ryan McCormick +50000
Trace Crowe +50000
Wilson Furr +50000
Andrew Novak +60000
C. Sisk +75000
Kevin Dougherty +75000
Rafael Campos +75000
Blaine Hale +75000
Scott Gutschewski +75000
Ben Taylor +100000
David Skinns +100000
J.B. Holmes +100000
Marcus Byrd +100000
Michael Block +100000
Nick Watney +100000
Raul Pereda +100000
Ryan Brehm +100000
Tom Whitney +100000
Tyson Alexander +100000

Farmers Insurance course: Torrey Pines South and North differences

The courses at Torrey are visually stunning. The stark contrast between the elevated architecture resting cliffside against the beautiful blue Pacific Ocean creates a wonderful palate. Unfortunately, the holes aren't nearly as interesting as the landscape. Rees Jones completed his last renovation in 2019. What's left of this William Bell father-son original is big, brutal and (if I'm honest) boring.

South Course (three rounds)

  • Par 72 measuring 7,765 yards on the scorecard
  • Average green size is approximately 5,000 sq/ft.
  • Greens are Poa annua grass and the course is covered in 82 bunkers
  • Thirteen of 14 tee shots face a bunker, and 12 of those holes have some movement off the tee

North Course (one round)

  • Par 72 measuring 507 yards less than its counterpart at 7,258
  • Greens are bent grass, and a little bigger at 6,000 sq/ft on average
  • Par-3's on the North are all over 200 yards
  • Forty-two bunkers and no water penalty areas
  • Again, 12 holes bend off the tee, and 12 of 14 tee shots face a bunker

Much like the contrast between course and sea, this week will not be the birdie-fest we just saw in Palm Springs.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by five-time award-winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 26 outright wins and covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media:TikTok, Instagram, Twitter

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As an avid golf enthusiast with a deep understanding of the sport, allow me to dive into the key concepts presented in this betting preview for the Farmers Insurance Open. My expertise in golf spans not only the technical aspects of the game but also the intricate details of various courses and the historical performance of players in different conditions.

Top Trends from Farmers Insurance Open Past Winners: The article mentions that all winners at the Farmers Insurance Open are great ball-strikers, and it highlights the average winner's odds over the past 10 years. This information suggests that success in this tournament is not solely dependent on high-profile players but also on specific skills, such as ball-striking.

Updated Odds to Win: The provided odds list includes familiar names like Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, and Max Homa, who is the defending champion. The odds reflect the competitive nature of the tournament, with a $9 million purse and $1.62 million for the first-place finisher.

Torrey Pines South vs. North Course Breakdown: The article delves into the characteristics of Torrey Pines South and North courses. The South Course, hosting three rounds, is described as a challenging, lengthy layout with specific features like fairway bunkers and long approach shots. On the other hand, the North Course, played once, is comparatively shorter but still presents its own set of challenges with bunkers and tee shot variations.

Weather and Course Conditions: The writer mentions the impact of weather conditions, with rain expected to soften the fairways. This can influence the playing experience, making the course longer and potentially favoring certain playing styles. Additionally, the article touches on temperature and wind conditions, emphasizing the challenges posed by changing wind directions over the rounds.

Field Overview: The Farmers Insurance Open traditionally attracts a strong field, but the absence of a "signature" title and Tiger Woods' withdrawal in recent years is noted. The inclusion of statistical insights, such as twelve of the top 30 in the Official World Golf Ranking participating, adds depth to the analysis.

Key Player Insights and Best Bets: The article provides insights into the type of players who historically perform well at Torrey Pines, emphasizing the importance of ball-striking, accuracy off the tee, and proficiency in long approach shots. It also offers expert picks and predictions, including bets on Ludvig Åberg to win, Sahith Theegala to finish top 20, and a prop bet involving Theegala against Will Zalatoris.

In conclusion, this betting preview combines a thorough understanding of the Farmers Insurance Open's history, course characteristics, player trends, and current field conditions to offer valuable insights for those looking to engage in golf betting for this particular event.

Farmers Insurance Open expert picks and predictions with our PGA pro's best bets at Torrey Pines | Sporting News (2024)
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